Gold Regains Near-Term Technical Momentum; Longer-Term Price Trend Remains Up

According to the article, gold has gained some fresh near-term upside technical momentum. Gold continues to be a safe haven investment for many investors as uncertainty continues to grow in the euro zone. Many expect gold prices to continue their uptrend as the financial crisis continues.

By Jim Wyckoff
7/31/2012 @ 11:08AM
Forbes

December Comex gold futures prices are presently hovering near a six-week high around $1,625 an ounce. Prices have recently moved into the upper boundary of a well-defined sideways trading range on the daily bar chart. The precious yellow metal bulls have gained some fresh near-term upside technical momentum. A push in December futures prices above solid chart resistance at the June high of $1,646.40 would provide the bulls with better technical power to then suggest prices would continue to trend higher in the coming weeks. There is strong technical support located at the May low of $1,535.40 an ounce, basis the active December gold futures contract. A move below that level would produce serious technical damage to suggest a challenge of major psychological support seen at the $1,500.00 level.

There is an old saying in the market place that is tried and true: “The trend is your friend.” That phrase has been the mantra of the longer-term gold market bulls for the past 10 years. Indeed, an examination of the longer-term monthly chart for nearby Comex gold futures shows that prices have been trending higher since the April 2001 low of $255.00 an ounce. Gold futures prices have backed well down from the September 2011 all-time record high of $1,923.70, but the overall longer-term price uptrend remains in place. Veteran market watchers know market prices do not got straight up or straight down, but instead produce price trends that include “corrections” within the overall trends.

To the frustration of the gold market bulls on a more near-term basis, gold prices have in recent weeks been acting mostly like a risk asset and following most other raw commodity market prices, on a daily basis. Historically, gold has been viewed by many market watchers as a safe-haven store of value and has seen better demand during times of heightened trader/investor uncertainty in the market place. Such has not been the case the past few months despite geopolitical events that have unnerved traders and investors.

The ongoing European Union sovereign debt and financial crisis of the past two-plus years initially worked to boost gold prices. In September of 2011 nearby Comex futures hit their all-time high partly due to safe-have demand amid the EU debt and financial crisis. However, the recent move by the EU crisis back to the front burner of the market place has been accompanied by a resurgent value of the U.S. dollar against the other major currencies. That’s a significantly bearish factor for gold, which typically trades in an inverse price relationship with the U.S. dollar index (a basket of six major world currencies weighted against the greenback).

Importantly, market watchers should not assume that gold prices would continue to depreciate if the EU debt crisis continues at a medium-boil or even escalates. There have been recent glimmers of fresh safe-haven investor demand surfacing for gold, mainly due to the EU debt worries. History shows that both the U.S. dollar index and gold can appreciate during times of higher anxiety in the market place.

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